El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific and is expected to persist into early 2027, increasing the risk of heat, drought and flooding across several regions, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The UN weather agency expects the climate pattern to develop into a “very strong” event and peak around the end of 2026. The likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 is close to 100 per cent.
Measurements from the central tropical Pacific show the scale of the warming. The Niño 3.4 index averaged 1.5°C above normal between May and July and reached 2°C in July. Weekly readings between late July and mid-August rose as high as 2.6°C.
Temperatures below the ocean surface exceeded normal levels by more than 8°C in some areas during July and early August, according to WMO data.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the pattern was “being supersized before our eyes” as its effects combine with long-term warming linked to greenhouse gas emissions.
El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual, changing atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across the world. Events tend to occur every two to seven years.
Scientists have not reached a consensus that human-caused climate change is increasing the strength of El Niño events, according to the UN. A warmer atmosphere and ocean, though, increase the heat and moisture present when the natural cycle develops.
WMO forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures across most of the world from September to November. Parts of South East Asia, Central America and northern South America face lower rainfall and increased drought and wildfire risks. Wetter conditions are expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern United States.
“El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. She said drought and flooding were already causing disruption and that their effects were expected to increase as the event strengthens.
Effects are already reaching transport and agriculture. Panama began restricting traffic through the Panama Canal on Thursday after rainfall fell about one-third below normal and water levels declined in reservoirs supplying the waterway.
The number of vessels permitted to use the canal will fall by more than 10 per cent. Around 14,000 ships use the route each year, while the canal generates about $3 billion annually for Panama.
Indonesia is also dealing with fires during its dry season. More than 200,000 hectares of land have burned nationwide from January to July, according to the forestry ministry data, with authorities using cloud-seeding aircraft and other measures to contain fires.
Australia is monitoring marine heatwaves, while Peru and other parts of South America face increased risks from heavy rain, flooding and landslides. China has also experienced a series of typhoons during the current El Niño period.
WMO has launched a mobilisation with national weather and hydrological agencies to expand forecasting and early-warning systems. The programme focuses on risks to agriculture, health services, energy and water supplies as El Niño approaches its expected peak.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparedness and response,” Saulo said.
HT
