A recent survey by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy IWP indicates a silver lining in the global economic clouds, suggesting that worldwide inflation rates are set to dip over the coming years. The Economic Experts Survey, which pooled insights from specialists across 128 countries, anticipates the global inflation rate to drop from 6.2 percent this year to 5.2 percent in 2024 and further slide to 4.5 percent by 2026.
Several significant economies are echoing this trend. In the UK, inflation is anticipated to peak at 6.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, Ireland projects a rate of 5.6 percent, the US forecasts 4.2 percent, and Canada expects 4.1 percent. Niklas Potrafke, an ifo researcher, notes, "While the current inflation expectations remain elevated, they've considerably receded from the last quarter's figures."
The 2023 projections for inflation are notably subdued in Western Europe at 4.6 percent and North America at 4.1 percent, witnessing a quarter-over-quarter drop by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. By 2026, these regions are projected to further temper their inflation rates, with Western Europe at 2.4 percent and North America at 2.7 percent.
Conversely, regions like South America and significant portions of Africa are bucking this trend, with much higher inflation expectations, notably a striking 20.5 percent in South America.
The survey, carried out between September 26 and October 11, 2023, drew perspectives from 1,541 global participants, painting a comprehensive picture of the global economic climate and its inflationary trends.