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During the Covid years from 2020 to 2022, around 180,000 more people died in Germany than would have been normally expected. This is the finding of calculations by the ifo Institute. “The elderly were especially poorly protected,” says Joachim Ragnitz, Managing Director of ifo Dresden. In the 80+ age group alone, 116,000 more people died than expected; in the 60–79 age group, the figure was 51,000. In the large age group of 30–59, on the other hand, there were only 12,000 additional deaths and only about 900 among those aged 0–29.

Per 100,000 people, excess mortality was 640 in the 80+ age group, and 92 in the 60–79 age group. In the two youngest age groups, relative excess mortality was much lower, at 12 and 1, respectively.

“What’s surprising is that excess mortality accelerated again in 2022,” Ragnitz says. There were about 39,000 additional deaths in 2020, 68,000 in 2021, and nearly 74,000 in 2022. “The exact reasons for this are still unclear. The heat waves in the summer and the flu waves at the end of the year probably also played a role,” he adds.

To calculate the expected number of deaths, the ifo Institute takes the average for the years before the Covid-19 pandemic (2016–2019) and adjusts for rising life expectancy and changes in the age structure.


Source: ifo Insitute