Finland’s network of upper secondary schools faces major change over the next 15 years as falling birth rates reduce student numbers across most of the country, according to a new report from the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities.
The report says the number of upper secondary students in mainland Finland is expected to fall by about 21,000 by 2040, a drop of around 21 per cent from current levels.
The decline is not spread evenly across the country.
Large cities are expected to retain most of their student base while many smaller regions face steep losses and growing pressure on local schools.
The report found that the number of 16-year-olds has already fallen in 57 of Finland’s 69 sub-regions since the start of the 2000s. In some areas the decline has reached 74 per cent.
Only 12 sub-regions recorded growth in that age group during the same period.
Susanna Huovinen, deputy chief executive of the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, said the scale of the demographic shift has not yet been fully understood.
“The population change is transforming upper secondary education faster than many people realise. Decisions need to be made in advance and together, not only when schools are already under pressure,” Huovinen said.
The effects are already visible in student applications. During Finland’s 2026 joint application round, seven upper secondary schools received four or fewer first-choice applications. A total of 24 schools attracted no more than ten primary applicants.
Competition between schools has also intensified. Large urban areas and specialised schools continue to attract students from across wider regions while smaller schools struggle to maintain enrolment.
In the Helsinki region, the number of accepted students exceeds the number of local applicants as students move into the area for education. In many smaller towns, students leave to study elsewhere.
The report predicts the steepest decline in student numbers will arrive during the early 2030s. In two thirds of Finland’s sub-regions, upper secondary student numbers are expected to fall by more than 20 per cent between 2030 and 2035.
Some of the sharpest projected declines are in the Jämsä, Ylä-Pirkanmaa, Järviseutu, Keuruu and Saarijärvi–Viitasaari regions, where student numbers are forecast to fall by between 45 and 52 per cent by 2040.
The report also points to widening financial differences between regions.
In the Helsinki area, upper secondary education costs around €9,600 per student each year. In the Loviisa region, costs are close to €21,000 per student due to small school sizes and separate Finnish and Swedish language provision.
The report warns that uncontrolled closures would affect more than upper secondary education alone. In many municipalities, subject teachers work both in upper secondary schools and lower secondary schools. A reduction in upper secondary provision could therefore weaken teaching resources in mathematics, sciences, languages and arts subjects across local school systems.
Regional differences also appear in the share of young people applying for upper secondary education. In the Helsinki region, more than 60 per cent of 16-year-olds apply to upper secondary school. In East Lapland, the figure stands at about 33 per cent.
Irmeli Myllymäki, director of education affairs at the association, said municipalities need new forms of cooperation to protect education access.
“Cooperation can include shared courses, remote teaching, wider language options and joint cultural projects. In many regions this type of cooperation can help maintain diverse upper secondary education for young people,” Myllymäki said.
The association called for changes to Finland’s upper secondary funding system and said municipalities should not face financial penalties for joint education arrangements.
Municipalities already provide almost 70 per cent of upper secondary education funding in Finland and compensate for more than €100 million in annual state funding reductions, according to the report.
The report estimates mainland Finland will have around 78,800 upper secondary students by 2040. The largest concentrations are expected in the Helsinki, Tampere and Turku regions.
HT
