Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) greeted the public ahead of a joint campaign event with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Helsinki on Tuesday, 4 June 2024. Orpo’s National Coalition is set to add to its seat total in the European Parliament, according to an opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat. (Mikko Stig – Lehtikuva)

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THE NATIONAL COALITION is set to become the largest Finnish party in the European Parliament, indicates a poll conducted for Helsingin Sanomat by Verian.

The poll shows that the ruling right-wing party would receive 21.6 per cent of the vote and grow its seat tally by one to become the only Finnish party with four seats in Brussels. The Social Democratic Party would receive 19.0 per cent of the vote to increase its seat tally by one to three.

Both the Finns Party and Centre Party would hold on to their two seats, with respective vote shares of 14.3 and 12.1 per cent.

The Green League, the poll reveals, would win 10.5 per cent of the vote and lose one of its three seats in the European Parliament. The Left Alliance would increase its vote share significantly to 9.7 per cent but fail to secure a second seat, with its sole seat in all likelihood going to outgoing chairperson Li Andersson.

The Swedish People’s Party was the choice of 5.1 per cent, the Christian Democrats the choice of 4.9 per cent and Movement Now the choice of 1.0 per cent of the poll respondents. With the Christian Democrats and Movement Now forming an electoral alliance, they would win the last of the 15 seats allocated to Finland in the European Parliament.

The Swedish People’s Party, as a result, would be left without a seat for the first time ever.

Tuesday, 4 June, was the final day of advance voting in the European elections in Finland. A total of 1,086,452 votes were cast over the week-long advance voting period, translating to a turnout of 25.3 per cent, according to the Ministry of Justice's Information and Results Service. The election day is Sunday, 9 June.

Helsingin Sanomat on Tuesday highlighted in its report that the race for the last seats is extremely close. The Green League is holding on to the last place by only a few-thousand-vote margin over the Swedish People’s Party, leaving the former at risk of losing two of its three seats in Brussels. The National Coalition is holding on to the second to last seat.

Supporters of the Green League and Left Alliance are most certain to actually turn up at polling stations. Most uncertainty about turning the poll responses into actual votes is associated with supporters of the Finns Party, Centre Party and Social Democratic Party.

Verian interviewed 2,006 people for the poll between 20 May and 1 June. Roughly 40 per cent of the people either were unable or unwilling to reveal which party would receive their vote, or stated that they did not intend to vote.

The poll results have a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.

In the outgoing European Parliament, the National Coalition is part of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Social Democrats part of the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the Finns Party part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Centre Party and Swedish People’s Party part of Renew Europe (RE), the Green League part of the Greens and European Free Alliance, and the Left Alliance part of The Left.

Aleksi Teivainen – HT

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