The National Coalition Party Chairman Petteri Orpo speaks at the unveiling event of the National Coalition Party's parliamentary election program in Helsinki on February 7, 2023. LEHTIKUVA


According to a recent Arvo- ja asennetutkimus survey conducted by the Finnish Business and Policy Forum (Elinkeinoelämän valtuuskunta, EVA), 23% of Finns hope for a government formed by a coalition of the National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) and the Finns Party (Perussuomalaiset). This makes it the most popular government framework, as respondents were asked to choose their preferred prime ministerial party and other parties as coalition partners.

Wishes as a basis for the government formation. The figure shows the percentage of respondents who believe that one party should be the leading party and another party should be the government party. Picture: EVA's Values and Attitudes study.

19% of respondents hoped for a government formed by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Kokoomus, while 10% hoped for a government based on the current SDP-Centre Party coalition. These options represent the proportion of respondents who selected one of the parties as the prime ministerial party and the other as a coalition partner.

24% of Finns believe that the next Prime Minister should come from Kokoomus, while 23% hope that the current SDP Prime Minister will continue in office.

In addition to being the most popular party for the Prime Ministerial position, Kokoomus is also the second most popular choice (26%) as a support party for a government led by another party.

Kokoomus voters prefer conservative parties as coalition partners over left-wing parties, but they are also willing to accept the SDP if necessary. SDP supporters have difficulty finding a preferred main coalition partner other than the Greens and the Left Alliance. Centre Party is even less preferred as a coalition partner for those who hope for the SDP to lead the government than Kokoomus. On the other hand, Kokoomus and Finns Party voters have become closer to each other and see each other as desirable coalition partners.

"Kokoomus's role as a party for all situations is an indication that the 2023 elections will not be block elections. Block elections would require two ideologically different blocks for voters to choose between. The survey results suggest that there are two government options with different shades, but it is difficult to form a government without Kokoomus," says Sami Metelinen, Editor-in-Chief of EVA who wrote the analysis.

The most important issues for voters in choosing a party and candidate are the management of public finances and social and health matters.

The results are based on responses from 2,043 individuals and have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points in either direction for the entire population. The data was collected from January 31 to February 13, 2023. Respondents represent the 18-79-year-old population of the entire country (excluding Åland). The sample was collected from an online panel maintained by Taloustutkimus Oy, and a stratified random sample was used to form the research sample.

The expectations (%) regarding the composition of the upcoming government. Image: EVA's Values and Attitudes Survey.