STATISTICS FINLAND on Wednesday published preliminary statistics confirming the rapid deterioration of carbon sinks in Finland.
Helsingin Sanomat on Friday highlighted that Finland has long cultivated an image of itself as an honour-roll student on climate issues: it has succeeded in reducing greenhouse emissions by more than a third since the 1990s, while its forests have continued to sequester large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The statistics challenge the self-image, revealing that the country continues to contribute as much to global warming as it did 30 years ago.
The turnaround is attributable to the adoption of more accurate calculation methods at the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke). The updated calculations reveal that the carbon sink of forests has eroded so much in the past decade that it has undone the otherwise commendable emission reductions and, as a result, jeopardises the government-stated objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2035.
The objective is inscribed in the newly adopted climate act.
Emissions in the land use, land-use change and forestry sector are caused especially by the conversion of peatlands into agricultural land.
Helsingin Sanomat wrote that an examination of net emissions, the most critical indicator for the climate, reveals that net emissions have fluctuated between 30 and almost 60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents since 1990, settling slightly above 49 million tonnes in 2021, according to the preliminary statistics.
What is clear is that the trend line is flat if not slightly increasing, Sampo Soimakallio, a head of unit at the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), stated to Helsingin Sanomat.
“That’s a wake-up call,” he said.
Luke on Wednesday reiterated the carbon sink of forests eroded last year to the extent that the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector turned from a sink into an emission source for the first time ever in Finland.
The key reasons for the change, it stated, are intensive logging and the slowing growth of trees: The timber harvest stood at 76.3 million cubic metres in 2021, an increase of 11 per cent from 2020. The increment of the growing stock, in turn, declined from 108 million cubic metres to 103 million cubic metres.
Luke revealed that one of the most significant changes in its methodology deals with the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions from the soil of paludal forests. The updated calculations also take into consideration the fact that global warming has already accelerated the decay of peat and organic debris.
Another key change was the adoption of a more accurate method for calculating the biomass of the growing stock.
While understanding of net emissions changed as a consequence of the methodological shift, the methods must not be made the scapegoat, underscored Soimakallio. “The estimate is subject to change, but it changes in the direction that information becomes more accurate,” he stated to Helsingin Sanomat.
He reminded that timber harvests have increased since the early 1990s. “It just didn’t show for a long time because tree growth was also increasing,” he said.
Soimakallio said Finland has been too optimistic in assuming that tree growth could continue to accelerate for the foreseeable future and in using the assumption as the foundation for decisions on forest policy and sustainable logging volumes. In reality, the carbon sink of forests began to contract as early as 10 years ago.
The erosion of carbon sinks may cost the country dearly, Helsingin Sanomat wrote on Sunday. Jyri Seppälä, a professor at Syke and member of the Finnish Climate Change Panel, stated to the newspaper that the costs could rise to billions despite the uncertainties surrounding several variables.
“We’re talking about tens of millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents. When you multiply that with the price of an emission right, it comes down to a pretty hefty sums. We’re talking about billions,” he said.
The costs could be realised as soon as three years from now, according to the newspaper. The EU’s land use regulation lays down binding carbon-sink targets for member states based on their gross domestic product and the state of sinks in the early 2000s. The EU is tracking progress toward the targets over two five-year periods, the first of which will end in 2025.
Finland in 2021 fell about 18 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents short of the necessary average in the area of forests and wood products.
A member state that fails to meet its carbon-sink target will have to either acquire removal units for their land use sector or implement additional emission reductions in, for example, the transport industry. The availability – and consequently the price – of the units will be determined by how many member states exceed their national targets.
“There’s no way to say how many will be available then,” said Seppälä.
Finland, he added, will fall short of its sink target by 2025. “We’re flagrantly violating what we’ve committed to. If logging continues at this pace, the deficit will become enormous,” Seppälä said to Helsingin Sanomat.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
