THE FINNISH ECONOMY will expand by three per cent in 2021 and two per cent in 2022, forecasts Nordea.
The Helsinki-based financial services group said the domestic and global economic outlooks both hinge on the success of vaccinations against Covid-19. Its forecast is founded on the assumption that the epidemiological situation remains tolerable during the spring and improves during the summer, ensuring no additional sweeping restrictions are required in the autumn.
“A delay in vaccinations is the largest downward risk associated with the forecast,” stated Tuuli Koivu, the chief economist at Nordea.
“The longer the crisis lasts, the longer its adverse impacts are also on the long-term economic outlook.”
The Finnish economy has recovered at a relatively brisk pace from the blow delivered by the coronavirus pandemic, although the recovery slowed down at the end of last year due to the second wave of infections.
Outlook for the Finnish economy is fairly bright as long as the service industry is able to resume its operations, according to the financial group. The recovery, it added, will be driven by an up-tick private consumption brought about by improvements in the employment situation.
“Households have saved money during the coronavirus era as their consumption opportunities have been more limited,” said Juho Kostiainen, an economist at Nordea. “As the coronavirus restrictions are relaxed, private consumption is expected to increase rapidly this year, dragging the service out of the mire.”
Statistics Finland on Wednesday revealed that consumer confidence has reached an over two-year high in Finland, with its indicator rising from -4.6 in December to -0.9 in January.
Finns, it said, are confident especially about the development of the national economy. They also were relatively optimistic about their own economies and reported to having a fair bit of plans to buy durable goods. The unemployment situation, on the other hand, remains a cause of concern for many, although the expectations did improve from December.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT