THE CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC will most likely peak in Uusimaa between 26 April and 25 May, indicates the most likely modelling scenario devised by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL).
The modellings were part of the data examined by the government before it decided to repeal its decree for locking down what is the most populous region in Finland.
The Ministry of Social Affairs and Health published the modellings in a memo yesterday, estimating that based on the latest developments and most likely forecast scenarios the hospital and critical care capacity should suffice in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa. The demand for hospital capacity is currently predicted to peak between 6 May and 4 June and that for critical care between 12 May and 10 June.
It reminded, however, that current projections of the demand entail numerous assumptions and uncertainties.
Liisa-Maria Voipio-Pulkki, the head of strategic affairs at the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, underlined in a press conference yesterday that the national peak of the epidemic has not been witnessed yet.
“The answer is simply that it hasn’t,” she replied to a question from Uusi Suomi.
Voipio-Pulkki pointed out that the epidemic modellings will be specified once more information is gathered about the frequency of antibodies in the population at large. The information can be utilised in anticipating the epidemic curve and estimating when the coronavirus began to spread “quietly and undetected” in Finland.
Another key piece of information, she added, is the rate at which patients will require hospital and critical care.
“The current estimates of the epidemic's peak, which is to occur in May or maybe in June, they still contain uncertainties equivalent to several weeks,” she reminded. “We expect these to be cleared out and clarified notably going forward.”
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
Source: Uusi Suomi