To understand and predict what will happen next day is difficult, to say the least. In a week, everything may have changed. So many conflicting forces are at work, so many mistakes, tragedies and disasters are entirely possible. It may be Ukraine, the United States, Europe or Gaza.
Sometimes I feel transported to the end of the 19th century, when the great powers divided the world into spheres of influence and competed for Africa's natural resources.
At the same time, I am reminded that during my lifetime, the United States has left allies and defeated peoples to an unbeaten fate: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. My university course literature on the subject of international politics taught: The great powers ultimately always think about their own interests, political as well as economic.
Power politics is sometimes dressed in an idealistic veil and it can be profitable for a state to act seemingly selflessly. Defending a world order whose rules correspond to one's own values and inteests is not a sacrifice. Loyally holding on to a democratic alliance is not charity as it strengthens one's own influence.
That is why it is so difficult to understand Donald Trump's actions. He systematically distances himself from the United States' allies, both its neighbours and its allies in Europe. He may think that relations can be repaired at will, but future generations of decision-makers will not, must not, forget the meaning: You are interchangeable and can be sidelined when the President of the United States wants to create a triumvirate of totalitarian superpowers. If you do not conform, I will punish you.
What Trump ignores is that he is simultaneously accelerating the defeat of liberal democracy on the global stage. The spectacle at the White House a week ago took place before the eyes of the whole world and is perceived by millions as a sign of the division of the West and its inability to hold together against the totalitarian bloc. This, combined with Trump's shameless economic blackmail of a country in mortal danger and his threat to usurp new territories, is interpreted by the outside world as a confirmation of how hypocritical and false the West's message of a just world order is.
The question is whether Europe realizes that we too are losers, even if we temporarily manage to unite to save Ukraine. Can we shake off the image of ourselves as satellites to a United States where the rule of law is now in flux? We will probably see continued bows and flattery in the belief that it bridges the gap that has arisen when Trump has also started an ideological war against us. Some leaders may think that they can eat and keep the cake at the same time. No, the cancerous tumour affecting democracy can only be removed by the Americans themselves. Europe cannot wait two or four years but must act now to save what can be saved.
The realists of security policy will say that we cannot afford to weaken the nuclear umbrella or lose the American soldiers. One hopes that the fickle Trump will change his mind or that everything will be fine if the defence budget is raised. Some heads of state are restrained in their criticism of Trump, but tactical diplomacy should be compensated by forceful action.
In fact, the Trump administration is not the first to take a negative view of Europe and the EU: unite, but don't challenge the United States! The great power has often demanded participation in ill-considered invasions (and got it). The US has certainly received value for its alliance costs.
Now Trump has gone too far when he openly supports extreme parties in Europe, wants to make a deal with the autocrat and imperialist Putin over the heads of those affected and humiliates the leader of a struggling nation, a struggle whose outcome affects the whole of Europe.
If NATO is eroded and vetoes paralyze the EU, like-minded countries in Northern and Western Europe must quickly create their own frameworks for defence and cooperation. A first proof of determination is to put all the frozen Russian assets into use. Only broad European alliance for continued support for Ukraine can make the United States hesitate.
A quick peace is not in sight, neither Putin nor Zelensky is prepared, for various reasons. For Europe, it is important to persevere and clearly show the world that we do not accept Trump's diktats and his alliance with Putin. If liberal democracy is to survive, it must hold its banner high.
Pär Stenbäck
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Pär Stenbäck is a Minister (Hon.), a political scientist and a former foreign minister of Finland. He functioned as a monitor of cooperation on humanitarian issues between Israelian and Palestinian actors between 2007 and 2015, on behalf of the International Red Cross.
This is a "Viewpoint" opinion column. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or position of The Helsinki Times. This column is not fact checked and HT is not be responsible for any possible inaccurate or incorrect statement in this article.
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